I do most of my kids b-day and Christmas shopping during the Target toy clearances. The way it works is twice a year-January & July-Target resets the toy department, which means all the old toys will eventually hit 75% off to make room for the new toys!
In my opinion, the January toy clearance is better because people are usually overwhelmed with all the new holiday toys to even think about buying any more toys, and it seems by July people are going threw shopping withdrawal and need to buy things. Just last week I was checking out what toys were at 30% and I heard people saying things like "Oh wow! Its on sale, lets buy it now".
Target marks things down every two weeks. Toys usually get marked down on Wednesday or Thursday. At my store I noticed the toys hit 30% about two weeks ago, so this week they should go to 50%, and around July 29th toys should hit 75%. My calender is marked!